Tag: POTUS

Biden’s Age: A Key Factor for Re-election

Biden’s Age: A Key Factor for Re-election

The 2024 presidential election is approaching, and a crucial question emerges: is President Biden too old to run for re-election? Despite his accomplishments and the Democrats’ strong showing in the midterms, concerns about Biden’s age continue to surface. In fact, only 37% of Democrats want the incumbent to run for re-election, according to a recent Associated Press poll.

In focus groups conducted by Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, swing voters who shifted from Trump to Biden expressed their worries about the President’s age. Longwell notes that these concerns arise unprompted. At 80 years old, Biden would be 82 at the start of a second term and 86 at its end.

Biden’s age has long been a target for his political opponents. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s 2024 presidential campaign kick-off speech called for “mandatory mental competency tests” for candidates over 75. Nevertheless, the President’s response to these concerns is, “Watch me.” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield believes that Biden’s experience and wisdom bring stability and strong leadership to a volatile world.

While President Biden’s annual physical revealed that he is fit for duty, concerns about his cognitive functioning persist. S. Jay Olshansky, a public health professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago, acknowledges that the age question is “absolutely” a fair one. Risks are high for something going wrong in that age range.

However, Biden’s team views the next election as a choice rather than a referendum. They believe that Biden voters worried about age will be more concerned about the return of Trump or Trumpism than Biden’s advanced years. Even in Sarah Longwell’s focus group, all nine participants raised their hand for Biden when asked who they would support in a potential Biden-Trump rematch.

Despite the President’s healthy physical state and the potential for a stable and experienced leader, the age factor remains a critical consideration for Biden’s re-election campaign. As the 2024 race heats, the question of how old is too old for a president will undoubtedly continue to shape the political landscape. In the end, it will be up to the voters to decide if Biden’s age is a concern that outweighs the alternative.

There is no fourth branch of the federal government

There is no fourth branch of the federal government

The US Constitution defines three separate (and supposedly equal) branches of government:

  • Executive
  • Legislative
  • Judicial

Unfortunately, today we have a fourth branch of government:

  • Administrative (or maybe called the Regulatory branch)

How did this happen?

The founders probably could not have anticipated this happening. In the day and age of the writing of the US Constitution, it was not anticipated that regulations would need to be created that were so specific that the Congressmen themselves could not write the words (or at least with the help of some assistants).

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High Interest Rates Are Hobbling Growth – WSJ

High Interest Rates Are Hobbling Growth – WSJ

The problem with growth in the US economy will be immediately be solved the day that we stop the trade war with China. We don’t need the Fed to counter-balance a political battle between China and the US. Mark my words, when this trade war is over, the economy will almost immediately overheat.

Also, you can guarantee that POTUS will turn off the trade war by the first quarter of 2020 so that the economy is running at top speed for the November election. The Chinese know this and they know they just have to hold on 6 more months and our political will for the trade war will vanish.

Source: High Interest Rates Are Hobbling Growth – WSJ

There’s an increasingly strong case that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates to weaken the U.S. dollar and encourage greater exports—and that it should do it soon.

A strong dollar makes it cheaper for Americans to purchase foreign goods and more expensive for those using a foreign currency to purchase American goods. The dollar has strengthened relative to foreign currencies since the second quarter of 2018, and U.S. exports have essentially stagnated. While the U.S. economy surged in 2018 thanks to tax cuts, deregulation and a declining oil price, gross domestic product could have grown faster. Preliminary GDP growth over the past three quarters has been a strong 2.9%, but had real exports grown at a 3% annualized rate—which they did from 2009 to 2018—GDP would have grown by 3.2%.

The Fed’s tightening of the money supply contributed to this decline in export growth by making the U.S. dollar more valuable. The Fed has increased the federal-funds rate nine times since beginning the rate increases at the end of 2015, which boosted the demand for greenbacks. The greater the federal-funds rate, the greater the return on investments made in dollars. The Fed also ended its expansive monetary policy as the economy improved, constraining the money supply and further enhancing the dollar’s value.

A Bernie Sanders supporter called me last night

A Bernie Sanders supporter called me last night

I live in Ohio, so I wasn’t surprised that last night I received a call asking me to support a Presidential candidate. I was surprised that the candidate was Bernie Sanders.
I almost felt sorry for him but in the end, I did suggest that when he hung up that he should leave the volunteer center and go home and stop trying to ruin America now that he had received a lesson in economics and voting record.

What I was most amazed at was that this young man thought that Bernie Sanders would “fix Wall Street.” I wasn’t surprised that the young man liked Bernie’s call for socialized healthcare and extremely high minimum wages. We discussed these topics for several minutes, and I explained economics to him, but it didn’t surprise me that the young man liked Bernie’s ideas – after all, who doesn’t want something for nothing! However, the uninformed young man didn’t realize that when it came to Wall Street, Bernie is quite simply lying when he says that he will “fix it” simply because the fixes that Bernie already supported CAUSED the financial crisis that has hurt so many people. In fact, I am simply amazed that any low to middle-income person in the US would want to support Mr. Sanders simply because his lack of judgment has hurt so many poor people already.

bernie sanders photoThe caller had no knowledge that Mr. Sanders actually voted FOR the legislation that ultimately caused the “too big to fail” banks and limited the regulation of financial derivatives (the Financial Services Modernization Act) that was passed under Bill Clinton. He was also completely uninformed that this massive bill that dramatically changed banking in the US was primarily supported by Democrats (and Mr. Sanders as an Independent) while the majority of the Republicans voted against it. That is correct, the party of those that will “fix Wall Street” are primarily the ones that “broke Wall Street”. For those that are keeping score, Republicans 58-131, Democrats 182-1, Independent (Sanders) 1-0.

The young man was also uninformed as to the second major contributor to the financial crisis of 2008. That was The Housing and Community Development Act of 1992. This act forced home loans to people that were very unlikely to pay back the loan. This created the bad loans which then the banks wanted to sell to get them off their books which caused the problems because of lack of control in the Sanders’ supported Financial Services Modernization Act. Mr. Sanders also voted for The Housing and Community Development Act of 1992. In fact, so did 95% of the Democrat Congressman. Unfortunately, the Republicans are not as clean on this as 75% also supported this ill-fated bill.

In true transparency, Mr. Kasich was also serving at that time, and he voted for The Housing and Community Development Act and voted against the Financial Services Modernization Act. Mr. Cruz was too young to hold federal office. Mr. Rubio was too young to hold national office. Mr. Trump was not in public office and was probably dealing with his first of several bankruptcies which occurred at about this time. Ms. Clinton did not hold public office at that point, but was the First Lady and likely supported both bills as they were both signed by her husband, President Bill Clinton.

What is the lesson to be learned here? There are two. The first is that Bernie Sanders had a helping hand in creating the situation that caused the 2008 financial crisis so saying he can now fix it is a stretch of the imagination. The second lesson is that if you are going to call me to have me support your candidate, be prepared to have to defend the candidate with solid facts and reasoning otherwise it won’t be an enjoyable phone call for you (even though I will probably enjoy it immensely).

Photo by origamidon

Should we take a decade long break regarding George Walker Bush?

Should we take a decade long break regarding George Walker Bush?

I have written about the legacy of George Walker Bush several times on this site.  Most notably, I did a 5 part series that tried to answer the question if GWB is the worst President ever.  Now I read an opinion by Thomas Fleming, who is one of the most respected and well written presidential historians that we should all take a long sigh and relax for a bit before grading the man.

I respect the work of Mr. Fleming (and the WSJ) to quote too much of his article on this site.  Please go to their site and read the full opinion but here are some highlights that I thought were interesting.

Several polls of historians have named George W. Bush the worst
president in American history. This baffles me. I’ve been writing about
presidents for a long time. What I know, and what I presume these
gentleman know, doesn’t connect.

Is Mr. Bush worse than John Adams? When a shooting war at sea started
between the United States and revolutionary France in 1798, Honest John
wrote a letter to George Washington, offering to resign so that George
could resume the job. How’s that for presidential leadership?

The American economy came to a horrific standstill; smuggling became
New England’s chief industry. Someone described the embargo as “cutting
a man’s throat to cure a nosebleed.” Nonplussed, Jefferson quit,
telling only James Madison, his secretary of state, who was de facto
acting president for the last year of Tom’s term.

Next, Wilson talked Congress into declaring war on Germany on the
assumption that we would not have to send a single soldier to France.
Before the war ended, we had 2,000,000 troops overseas, and in three
months of fighting lost 144,000 men.

Warren G. Harding confessed to reporters that he was not up to the job.
He told one newsman that he wanted to make the U.S. tariff higher than
the Rocky Mountains to help Europe’s industries recover from World War
I. The appalled reporter realized the president had one of the biggest
issues of the era exactly backward.

Worse than Jimmy Carter, the self- proclaimed Washington “outsider” who
presided over the most horrendous stagflation in our history? As his
poll numbers sank, Mr. Carter had the temerity to lecture citizens on
their “crisis of spirit.” His approval rating had plummeted to 22% when
Ronald Reagan defeated him.

In this light, however wavering, maybe it’s time to suspend the rush to
judgment on George W. Bush for 10 or 20 years. I suspect we will decide
Mr. Bush’s first term, with his decisive response to 9/11, deserves
some praise, and that his second term succumbed to an awesome amount of
bad luck, from his generals’ disagreements on how to fight the war in
Iraq to the Wall Street collapse of 2008.

So does all this mean that I will stop trying to figure out his rank among his peers.  Probably not, but at least I know that my final opinions should wait 2020 or later.  Stop by then and see what I think.

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Least qualified President in decades/century?/ever?

Least qualified President in decades/century?/ever?

The current President of the United States, Barack Hussein Obama, has had a very troubled start to his Presidency.  Not only did he inherit a mess in the economy, but he has had multiple mis-steps in his selection of his cabinet and advisors.  While the tax problems with Daschle and others have plagued the first few nominations, now there is even some concern about his most important advisor, his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel.  There has also been some criticism for his first international discussions, the first phone call he made to a foreign power was to President Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority.

There is also a great deal of controversy about the replacement to BHO’s Senate seat although it is likely that none of this is his fault (even if it makes one wonder how he could have thrived in such a corrupt political environment as Illinois / Chicago politics).

Why is there such turmoil in the first 100 days of the BHO presidency?
It is quite likely because he is so inexperienced at being in such a large stage.  He has had little experience in this area.  In fact, he is easily the least experienced President in decades and he is probably the least experienced President in over 100 years.  The table below lists all the Presidents since 1900.  It shows their previous national office as well as other significant positions that they held.  Most Americans allow a Governorship to be qualification for office and so I am lumping this in with Senate and Congress service.

A quick look takes us to Hoover before we get to someone that didn’t get elected to a major office and hold that office for a term or two.  Hoover did run a major cabinet before the election and was very prominent in world and national politics and had been a moderately successful businessman so it is arguable that he was less experienced in a national office.  He is also not a President that most people regard as being very successful!  In addition, while the election of the President was a populist effort at that time (dirty politics aside), the selection of candidate by the party was very much decided by power brokers in the parties of the day.

A little farther down the list, we see that Harding and Taft didn’t have a great resume for national office but they did have a bit of experience in running a territory or State and, like Hoover, were major players in the political machines of the day. Harding is often referenced as being among the worst President’s ever and takes specific criticism for his cabinet and appointees.

So the conclusion that we must draw is that BHO has less experience for national office than, at a minimum, the previous 12 men who held that office.  It is also reasonable to conclude that he has less experience than any President since Teddy and the leadership of the United States within the world has definitely evolved since Teddy was talking about big sticks!

The final conclusion is simple, with such an inexperienced man as POTUS, we will continue to see mistakes until he figures out how to do the job.  Let’s all hope that this is a quick learning curve since we need to dig ourselves out of the mess that Mr. Obama inherited.

List of 20th and 21st Century Presidents
(data collected and confirmed from Presidential library sites and Wikipedia)

President Previous national office Other significant position
Barack Hussein Obama US Senator (didn’t finish first term) Illinois State Congressman (1 term)
George Walker Bush Texas Governor (didn’t finish 2nd term) Part – owner of a professional baseball team
William Jefferson Clinton 12 years – Governor of Arkansas Attorney General Arkansas
George Herbert Walker Bush Vice President of the United States – 2 terms US Congressman, CIA Director, Ambassador
Ronald Wilson Reagan California Governor – 2 terms President of union
James Earl Carter, Jr. Governor Georgia – 1 term Georgia Senator (2 terms)
Gerald Rudolph Ford, Jr. Vice President of the United States (2 yrs) US Congressman (25 yrs)
Richard Milhous Nixon Vice President of the United States (2 terms) US Congressman (2 terms), US Senate (didn’t finish term)
Lyndon Baines Johnson Vice President of the United States (didn’t finish first term) US Senator (2 terms), US Congressman (6 terms)
John Fitzgerald Kennedy US Senator (2 terms – didn’t finish the second) US Congressman (3 terms)
Dwight David Eisenhower Supreme Commander of the Allied forces in Europe 5 star General in the US Army
Harry S. Truman Vice President of the United States (didn’t finish first term) US Senator (2 terms)
Franklin Delano Roosevelt New York Governor State Senator, Assistant Secretary of the Navy
Herbert Clark Hoover United States Secretary of Commerce Head of the American Relief Administration
John Calvin Coolidge, Jr. Vice President of the United States (didn’t finish first term) Massachusetts Governor
Warren Gamaliel Harding US Senator (1 term) Ohio Lt. Governor
Thomas Woodrow Wilson New Jersey Governor President Princeton University
William Howard Taft United States Secretary of War Governor of Phillipines
Theodore Roosevelt Vice President of the United States Governor New York